Last month saw one of the largest protests in recent Serbian history as hundreds of thousands of citizens flooded the streets of Belgrade, demanding early elections.

The country’s President Aleksandar Vucic has been in power for 12 years, during which he has masterfully maneuvered between the West and its allies — Russia and China.

For strongman leaders like Vucic, internal instability often triggers a familiar response: external provocation. In Russia, Vladimir Putin used the invasion of Ukraine not only to project strength abroad but to consolidate power at home.

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